Since 2003, NFL teams receiving no more than 40% of spread bets have gone 1,126-1,112 ATS (50.3%). That’s known as reverse line movement, and it’s one of the easiest ways to identify sharp money.Īt Sports Insights we encourage a contrarian approach to sports betting, and one of the most basic contrarian strategies is betting against the public. However, let’s pretend that the spread moves against the public betting percentages. Based on that lop-sided public betting, many bettors would expect that oddsmakers would adjust the spread from New England -14 to -14.5 in order to encourage action on New York. In this instance, we’ll assume that the Patriots receive 80% of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. Based on these past trends, we can safely conclude that the Patriots would draw overwhelming support from bettors.

In fact, past research found that a majority of public bettors have backed the favorite in more than 80% of all NFL regular season games since the start of the 2003 season. Most recreational bettors, also known as squares, gravitate towards winners and high-scoring teams. Sportsbooks shade their opening line to capitalize on public perception, and allow their most-respected clients to move the lines.Īs an example, let’s pretend that the New England Patriots open as 14-point favorites against the New York Jets. Many bettors believe that oddsmakers are looking to balance their book by attracting 50% of the action on each side and thereby mitigating any risk. To understand why sharp money is important, bettors first have to understand how sportsbooks operate. When discussing sharp money, we are typically focusing on large wagers made by single individuals or betting syndicates. For sports bettors, “sharp money” is one of these terms and it is frequently used when breaking down line movement.

There are certain hackneyed terms that are used so often that they seemingly lose all meaning.

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